Upcoming Iranian Elections

April 7, 2009

Interesting article in the LA Times on the upcoming Iranian election. First he points out that this is a real election with opposing world views on offer. The rerformists are against the foreign policy of Ahmadinejad.

Supreme Leader Khameini favours the Ahmadinejad’s struggle against an unjust world power stance. However that other powerful figures, such as Rafsanjani, believe that the confrontational stance has been detrimental to Iran. A conservative win can be interpreted as a mandate for A. to continue his rhetoric and struggle. This would facilitate D. Ross’s containment plans at the State Department. If Mousavi wins, there could be room for real rapprochement.

The moderates have reached the conclusion that the animosity with the United States is detrimental to Iran’s national interest and that it has suffered immensely as a result of waging, as it were, an ideological war with the United States.

The hard-liners see themselves as the leading historical worldwide crusade against U.S. “arrogance” and the world order. They regard themselves as . . . the vanguard of a universal struggle against the domination of the Western powers.

Support for the nuclear program appears to span party lines and interesting to see it referred to as an insurance policy.

A substantial reason for the Iranian insistence on the nuclear program is that they have realized that this is an insurance policy . . . that every country that has a nuclear industry, nuclear capability, has not been invaded [or] attacked by any other state. That does not necessarily mean building atomic weapons, but to become a nuclear power. The psychological feeling of insecurity has driven Iranian leaders toward insisting on becoming nuclear.

Political scientist Sadegh Zibakalam heads the department of Iranian studies at Tehran University

Moderate candidate Mousavi speaks about Iran’s image

April 6, 2009

As reported by AFP, the presidential candidate Mousavi, in his first speech since his declaration to run, has stated that he will work on repairing Iran’s image in the world. AFP uses the word extremism to describe the IRI’s image. I’m not sure if this is a correct translation from Persian.

In any case the text seems suprisingly frank in admitting that the IRI’s image is extreme. Though Mousavi reaffirms right to peaceful nuclear energy, which is supported by a vast majority of the population.

It seems to me that the current US establishment loathe current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad due to is anti-Israel rhetoric. If there is any chance of real progress for dialogue, Mousavi must win the election. Also, it appears that the Washington tactic (Ross tactic?) is too engage as early as possible, as they feel that time is short. They [Ross & co.] obviously have a roadmap to sanctions or even a blockade and need to tick the box of having done diplomacy first.

(As an aside, Google now host the news themselves – hosted news – another ominous sign for newspapers)


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